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- Obregon - caught between who to ally with - ally with Carranza only because of hatred for Villa and Zapata - figured to steal presidency, but outmaneuvered
- Villa stay out of conflict (march to North) - Mexico plunged into a year of Civil War
- Unclear what each side was fighting for - most likely power / culture
Villa versus Carranza:
- 3 issues divide Villa and Carranza
- role of central government - Carranza want strong control of everything, Villa want quasi-autonomous state
- land reform - Villa confiscate estates for military utopia, Carranza return estates to wealthy
- attitudes to the US - Carranza anti-American, Villa pro-American (at least briefly), see Woodrow Wilson as Madero-esque
- Villa - "Some Americans...were capable of seeing Villa as, simultaneously, both the 'man on horseback' and the champion of democracy..." - Alan Knight
- Villa advantages - one victory would set off Carranza, controlled most of Mexico, unbroken lines of communication, US favorite, and charismatic
- Villa weaknesses - careless of image, increased autocratism, alienation of middle class by soldiers' behavior, and others were envious of him
- Obregon - recruit urban working class for Carranza by promising improved conditions for fighting now without antagonizing the middle class
- Carranza propaganda better, also saw arising problem of debt peonage
- Villa cheated on arms deals and running low on exportable cattle and cotton - Villa enthusiasm for US dwindle
Villa's Downfall:
- July 10, 1915 - After a long struggle Obregon turn the plight of the Civil War in favor of Carranza
- How did Villa lose? - strategic blunder, tactical errors, ignored the advice of Felipe Angeles, loss of foreign interest
- 4 Villa foundations crumble:
- reputation for invincibility
- largesse toward havenots
- promise of land reform
- perception that the US was on his side
- October 14, 1915 - Fierro die in quicksand
- Villa spend last days in Chihuahua City executing followers he suspected of wanting sancuary in the US
- December 1915 - Villa left with 2,000 followers
- Villa retreat to sierras with 200 dorados to fight guerrilla style again
